Q2 2026: diversification proving itself in the numbers
According to GASTAT’s flash estimate, non-oil activities grew 0.6% in Q2 2026 compared with Q2 2025, government activities grew 0.9%, and net taxes on products added roughly another 0.1 percentage point. The headline real GDP change of -4.8% has one clear source: oil activities, which moved 24.7% lower year on year in line with production levels and global market movements that sit outside the domestic economy.
This is Vision 2030’s diversification strategy showing up in the actual data. The Kingdom deliberately built its non-oil economy on a base wider than a barrel of oil. When oil moved 24.7% lower in a single quarter, the non-oil economy did not follow it down. It kept growing on its own track, which is precisely what the diversification programmes were built to deliver, and it is an achievement worth pausing on: a domestic production base able to expand independently of global energy cycles.
Source: General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), Q2 2026 GDP flash estimate. Net taxes on products also contributed about +0.1pp (not shown as its own bar).
| Activity | Y-o-Y change | Impact (pp) |
|---|---|---|
| Total real GDP | -4.8% | -4.8 |
| Oil activities | -24.7% | -5.4 |
| Non-oil activities | +0.6% | +0.4 |
| Government activities | +0.9% | +0.1 |
Source: General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), Q2 2026 GDP flash estimate.
Quarter on quarter: the non-oil economy holds its level
On a seasonally adjusted basis, non-oil activities held their level in Q2 2026 compared with Q1 2026, within half a percentage point, and government activities rose 0.2%. The headline -4.9% change came from oil activities, which moved 21.5% lower over the same period.
Taken together, the two readings are clear for a business owner. Year on year, the non-oil economy is in growth territory. Quarter on quarter and seasonally adjusted, it is essentially at the same level, which is normal variation between one quarter and the next in any economy. The base most of the Saudi private sector operates on is steady and growing.
Source: General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), Q2 2026 GDP flash estimate (seasonally adjusted). Net taxes on products contributed about -0.1pp.
What this means for retail, restaurant, and service business owners
The sectors where most Qoyod customers operate sit squarely inside the non-oil economy. Retail, restaurants, and services are all classified as non-oil activities. When that part of the economy grows independently of energy-market swings, the practical takeaway is direct: consumer demand is continuing, market liquidity is flowing, and the base a business owner plans against is widening rather than narrowing.
For a more current, sector-specific read, GASTAT’s short-term business indicators for May 2026, a month that falls inside this same quarter, showed wholesale and retail trade and vehicle repair revenue up 3.6% year on year. Set against our own Industry Benchmark report, where trade, restaurants and hotels combined were the fastest-growing sector in Saudi Arabia in full-year 2025 at 6.2%, this more recent monthly reading does not contradict that picture. It confirms it: the sector is expanding for a second consecutive year after a record 2025.
Detailed Q2 2026 figures specific to retail and restaurants were not yet published at the time of writing, because the flash estimate splits the economy only into oil, non-oil, and government activities. When GASTAT releases the detailed quarterly national accounts, this report will be updated with sector-specific numbers.
How your business can make the most of this momentum
Read in detail, the numbers tell a retailer, a restaurant, or a service business that the base they operate on is growing. To make the most of this stretch:
- Measure your business against non-oil activity and your own cash position. That is the indicator that actually reflects your market.
- Keep your financial statements accurate every month. Financing and expansion decisions at any stage need real numbers, not estimates.
- Track your actual profit margin alongside revenue, so growing demand converts into real profit and not just volume.
- Keep your invoicing aligned with ZATCA e-invoicing requirements from day one. Continuing demand means a continuous volume of transactions that deserves a system keeping pace in real time.
Qoyod is a cloud-based Arabic accounting system that gives retailers, restaurant owners, and service providers a real-time view of their cash position and profit, instead of waiting for a quarterly report to find out where the business actually stands. For restaurant operators specifically, Q.Flavours is built for the sector inside the Qoyod ecosystem.
The non-oil economy proved this quarter that it runs on its own track, independent of global energy-market swings, and that is an achievement that belongs to the diversification path Vision 2030 has set and to every programme that widened the domestic production base. Businesses that manage their numbers with precision are the ones best placed to turn that national momentum into growth in their own books, season after season.
Sources
- General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT): Real GDP flash estimate, Q2 2026 (non-oil activities up 0.6% and government activities up 0.9% Y-o-Y, oil activities -24.7%, headline GDP -4.8%).
- Arab News, citing GASTAT: wholesale and retail trade revenue up 7.3% in Q1 2026.
- Okaz, citing GASTAT: short-term business indicators operating revenue index, May 2026, including wholesale/retail trade and vehicle repair up 3.6% Y-o-Y.
- Qoyod: Industry Benchmark in Saudi Arabia report (trade, restaurants and hotels: fastest-growing sector in 2025 at 6.2%).